NAR OPTIMISTIC ABOUT 2007 HOUSING RECOVERY DESPITE SUBPRIME WOES

David Lereah, the National Association of Realtors’ chief economist, said, “Underlying trends point to a housing recovery in 2007, but it will take a couple of months for us to get a better handle on it. Existing-home sales are expected to slowly improve from what appears to be the cyclical low last fall.” Lereah believes that while subprime loan problems could inhibit future housing activity, they are likely to be contained and not spill over into the prime mortgage market. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that consumer spending slacked off, and this may be responsible for a stop market drop of over 200 points. In 4Q 2006, late mortgage payments met a 3 ½ year high or 4.95% of outstanding mortgage loans. Delinquency rates for subprime borrowers with adjustable-rate mortgages was 14.44%, the highest rate in 4 years. The bad news drove up bond prices, lowering yields, to which long-term lending is tied. In other words, mortgage interests could lower further still, providing incentive for homebuyers to buy and ARM holders to refinance.

Freddie Mac is concerned about overstock of unsold homes, warning that the number of unsold new homes may be higher than reflected as sales and inventory figures are not revised to reflect cancelled contracts. Vacant existing homes for sale are another source of unrecorded inventories with condos the most affected sector. The sub-prime mortgage market remains of great concern as well and banks are tightening standards on mortgage loans, but there is no crunch in the prime mortgage market with rates remaining low.